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PaddockPros.com - Where handicappers come to win! PaddockPros.com Home About Us 2015 Kentucky Derby Selections We did not get to finish our Kentucky Derby previews due to an unforeseen schedule change this week that kept us running, but wanted to touch base with our Kentucky Derby selections today. Our top selections are Materiality and Dortmund. Our second tier selections are American Pharoah, Firing Line and Frosted Our third tier selections are Mubtaahij, Carpe Diem Our fourth tier include Upstart, Bolo, Keen Ice, Tencendur, Danzig Moon and Frammento. We will be keying selections around our top two selections and using the other underneath in various formats. Good luck with your selections today and we hope you cash the Derby! 2015 Kentucky Derby Preview – Materiality Materiality Sire: Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) Dam: Wildwood Flower Langfuhr) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: J.J. Castellano We might as well get right to the elephant in the room for the Florida Derby winner for Todd Pletcher, he did not race as a two-year-old and it is rather well known that no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby after not racing as a two-year-old. Of course, there is a first time for everything and this colt was bred for Graded Stakes racing. His Sire, Afleet Alex won both the Preakness and Belmont in 2005 and ran a game third in the Kentucky Derby. His Dam, Wildwood Flower was competitive in Graded Stakes as well. In our opinion, this horse has made taken major steps in just the past three months since breaking his maiden in January at Gulfstream Park. Recent works have been good and his pedigree says he should have no problem with the distance. The fact that he was not raced as a two-year-old most likely was a maturity issue versus an inability to race. Some horses take longer than others to take to the track, school in the paddock as well as the gate and this may very well be the case with this colt. He has done nothing wrong and is entering the Kentucky Derby undefeated, just like Dortmund. The fact that Materiality has flown under the radar this year just proves that there is a very deep crop of three-year-olds and we believe this will lead to an exciting race on Saturday as although American Pharaoh has been tabbed at the Morning Line favorite, there are a number of horses that should be competing down the stretch. Remember, the Derby winner is not determined in the prep races, but rather on the track the first Saturday in May. Materiality has shown improvement with each outing, and had already defeated Derby competitors Upstart and Stanford. The rider change to Castellano from Velasquez should not have a negative effect on this colt as both ride for Pletcher. Velasquez will ride another strong competitor in Carpe Diem. Materiality is our dark horse selection on Saturday as he may be peaking at the right time. Paddock Pros Grade: A- 2015 Kentucky Derby Post Positions with Morning Line 2015 Kentucky Derby Preview – Firing Line Firing Line Sire: Line of David (Lion Heart) Dam: Sister Girl Blues (Hold for Gold) Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens Firing Line in our opinion is toughest horse to figure out in this field besides Mubtaahij. Firing Line had the lead at the top of the stretch in both the Los Alamitos Futurity in December as well as the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in January, but was rundown by Dortmund in both races. The connections sent him to the Sunland Derby in March where he easily won under a hand ride securing his place in the field at Churchill Downs. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby that came out of the Sunland Derby since its inception in 2003, although 50-1 Mine that Bird was the 4th place finisher in the Sunland Derby in 2009. The route through the Sunland Derby was the easiest one for Firing Line to take to avoid the Santa Anita Derby and a third match-up versus Dortmund. It also leaves six weeks of training for Simon Callaghan’s barn to further develop this three-year old colt. Recent workouts of 5F over the Santa Anita dirt are a mystery as he went in 1:00.4 on April 18th and then in 1:02.2 on April 25th, but previous 5F works were under a minute. Are they playing possum? This horse ran great in both outings leading up to the Sunland Derby and just could not hold off a beast in Dortmund. We do not think we have seen the best Firing Line has to offer which is why we have included him in our list of contenders. With a full six weeks of training since his last outing we will have to wait and see what Callaghan was able to get out of this one. A big plus is the services of Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens who we know will give him a good trip and take a shot at his fourth Kentucky Derby win. He is going to be on the bottom of some of our exotic tickets on Saturday as this colt has heart and a top jock. Paddock Pros Grade: B 2015 Kentucky Derby Preview – Frosted Frosted Sire: Tapit (Pulpit) Dam: Fast Cookie (Deputy Minister) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Joel Rosario (expected) Frosted wintered in Florida like most New Yorkers, but returned in time to win the Wood Memorial on April 4th and secure his place in the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby. He has run competitively against fellow likely Derby participants including Tencendur, El Kabeir, Upstart, Itsaknockout and Keen Ice. He has finished either first or second in each race with the exception of the Fountain of Youth where in our opinion he made a bid for the lead too early and faded down the stretch, appearing disinterested, to a hard charging Upstart and a harder charging Frammento who flew up to take third that February day at Gulfstream Park. McLaughlin made a rider change to Rosario before the Wood Memorial and it seemed to pay off with a much more spirited and competitive race out of Frosted. This tells us that this horse is still improving over his Fountain of Youth performance and he was also wide (covered 6060 feet per Trackus) the entire race until he hit the ? pole at the top of the stretch where he made his bid and just overtook Tencendur going away to a 2 length win. This is a good sign as we don’t want the best three-year-old in February; we want him the first Saturday in May. A successful trainer, McLaughlin has yet to win the Kentucky Derby. His best finish was as runner-up in 2005 with Closing Argument. Per this recent post on the Paulick Report Frosted continues to look good in training and should be a factor on Derby Day if the early pace does not do him in. He should be running late and should be on your exotic tickets since if he continues to improve out of the Wood he can be a factor in this field. Paddock Pros Grade: B+/A- Improving 2015 Kentucky Derby Preview – Mubtaahij Mubtaahij Sire: Dubawi IRE (Dubai Millennium GB) Dam: Pennegale FR (Pennekamp) Trainer: Michael de Kock Jockey: Christophe Soumillon PROBABLE Taking the really non-traditional route to the Kentucky Derby is Mubtaahij who earned his 100 points on the Derby Trail by winning the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan on March 28th. The horse will be surrounded in mystery come the first Saturday in May first because of the American public’s unfamiliarity with this horse that was bred in Ireland, raced only in Great Britain and the United Arab Emirates. Mubtaahij is trained by a South African in Mike de Kock and is owned by Sheikh. He is also the only the second Derby horse who has competed in two races in excess of 1 1/8 miles as his past two starts have come in 1 3/16 competition. One of the biggest question marks is always a horses ability to adapt to the 1? length While unsuccessful on the turf in Great Britain during his 2-year-old campaign, Mubtaahij took to the dirt surface at Meydan. He trains on the Meydan tapeta surface, and de Kock plans on keeping him on a synthetic surface for training when he arrives in the US. Mubtaahij and has gone 4-1-0 in 5 starts this year on the dirt. While it may not be an issue, one of de Kock’s concerns is that he is unable to import Mubtaahij’s feed which is a special blend from South Africa. While you may think that this is a non-issue, try changing the diet of a world class athlete two weeks before a major competition. Mubtaahij also comes into this race with previous Triple Crown experience as he took down the last two legs of the UAE Triple Crown and lost the first leg by a neck. The variable here is that he has not run against his completion at Churchill. The first common distance available is the 1 mile race that Mubtaahij ran on February 12th in 1:37.3. At similar distances you can compare the following Derby Contenders: Dortmund 11/29/14 Churchill Downs 1:35.3 Frosted 10/30/14 Aqueduct 1:36 Upstart 10/04/14 Belmont 1:36.3 The Kentucky Derby isn’t a one-mile race, and we know that Mubtaahij can make the distance but will he be able to at the fast pace that we expect to see in this year’s Kentucky Derby? This horse is a real wild card and he will on the bottom of all of our trifecta and superfecta tickets on Derby day. The mystery surrounding this horse, as well as his connections to UAE, could lead to large sums of money being wagered on him come May 2nd. We might be wrong, but this should add more money to the pools and that is never a bad thing for a horseplayer. Paddock Pros Grade: B+/A- 2015 Kentucky Derby Preview- International Star INTERNATIONAL STAR Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus (Mr. Prospector) Dam: Parlez (French Deputy) Trainer: Michael Maker Jockey: Miguel Mena (most likely) International Star began his journey to Churchill Downs last June breaking his maiden at Belmont Park in a 6f turf sprint. He has been busy since that day last June. After trying the dirt in the Rockville Centre Stakes where he was the runner-up to Bustin It he returned to the turf at Saratoga and then at Santa Anita in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. International Star took the southern route to Louisville by putting up a string of victories at Fair Grounds starting with the G3 Lacomte Stakes in January, followed by the G2 Risen Star in February and cemented his place in the Kentucky Derby field in March with a victory over Stanford in the G1 Louisiana Derby. International Star is owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey who are still looking for their first Kentucky Derby winner. While putting up an impressive streak of wins over the Fair Grounds track International Star has yet to run a Beyer in excess of 100, and was unable to beat El Kabeir in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over the Churchill Downs track in November. We cannot discount International Star’s 2015 Derby campaign, when you look at his Past Performance he has not beat any of our other Kentucky Derby contenders which is a little suspect. International Star will definitely be running late, but in a field of 20 horses there will be a ton of traffic to contend with and he won’t find it as easy in the Derby as he did defeating the likes of War Story and Keen Ice on his path to the Derby. This is a horse we would make sure is on the lower half of our Trifecta and Superfecta tickets because just like Commanding Curve in the 2014 Kentucky Derby he will be running late. Paddock Pros Grade: B 2015 Kentucky Derby Contenders The Kentucky Derby prep races are complete and now we have a few weeks to discuss/debate/argue who the real contenders are on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. The following are on our short list of Contenders: Dortmund American Pharoah Carpe Diem Materiality Firing Line Frosted Mubtaahij International Star Over the next few days we will look at each of these contenders more in depth and of course provide our insights on each of the Contenders. Belmont Park – July 5, 2014 Belmont 7/5/2014 R1: 2-4-5 R2: 4-1-5 R3: 11-7-4 R4: 4-5-1 R5: 11-10-9-8 R6: 2-9-5-3 R7: 4-1-3-7 R8: 5-6-11 R9: 2-5-7 R10: 12-6-2 Listed in order with top choice first. Recommend exacta boxes and vertical bets (P3-4-5’s) and rolling doubles. Good Luck to all who follow along! It is going to be a great day of racing! Pages About Us Archives May 2015 April 2015 July 2014 Categories 2015 Triple Crown (4) Selections (1) Belmont Park (1) Uncategorized (4) WordPress Log in WordPress Subscribe Entries (RSS) Comments (RSS)

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